I am Oz, the Great and Terrible

This week we witnessed President Zeleski visit the Emerald City and run head long into reality.

A reality that the whole world has been silent on – the reality that Kansas has changed and both he and the whole of Europe faces a new reality that has been spelt out in very simple words, one that I think Konstantine Kisin has captured perfectly in writing,

“The fact is that MAGA, the dominant force in the world’s leading nation, does not share the European view of President Zaleski. You may agree or disagree, but to the current occupants of the White House, their advisors and their base, President Zelenski - and forgive me for putting this bluntly- is an untrustworthy leader of a corrupt country on the other side of the world who keeps asking for more money America doesn’t have to fight a war they neither care about nor feel he can win. Most of these perceptions stem primarily from domestic American politics and the hatred MAGA has for anyone and anything President Biden touched. Most Americans don’t know where Ukraine is and have no reason to care. To them, this is just another “forever war” like Iraq and Afghanistan.”

As he says, you may agree or disagree. But it’s the fact that must be recognised, faced and resolved. Its one that has not sprung from outer space – American foreign policy on Europe failed under Obama, it has consistently failed since, failed when Putin walked into Crimea, it failed when Russia stated the proxy annexation of the Donbas, it failed when it fed Ukraine only sufficient materials to survive rather than to win when a win was possible. If failed on the wider stage in Syria, Libya, Afghanistan – it failed because America simply did not and does not see problem States  in Imperial terms – Russia and its self-interested supporters (read China) did, does and will. Russian (and China) thinks in a Roman mind set - in years and decades; the US at best for so long as political homogeneity exists in Congress. But that homogeneity and its looking glass is now broken.

Trump is simply a visible, raw, statement of a long held American truth painted in primary colours, American views its interests through an American prism and that prism has changed focus.

Much the same position existed at the close of World War 2 when the recipient of the bill from the US to be paid for services rendered was the United Kingdom, a bill that was only finally settled on 29th December 2006. Given the losses suffered in that conflict, both human, material and in terms of Empire the comparison to Ukraine whilst far from perfect is is there to see and illustrative of the underlying truth – America’s position was, is and will be transactional and this fact has now been laid in the centre of the stage and broadcast far and wide.

The US has no feeling of empire in terms of geographic ownership and control. Its dominance is that of the British East India Company (and continued misrule and unrest could well deliver it the same fate). It is based on commercial power, commerce and the power of the dollar as the world reserve fait currency, and that dominance is now under ever increasing threat.

The US Government Debit is 124% of the US nominal GDP, that as a hard number is  36 trillion dollars, (36 followed by 12 zeros) and it is growing as the US faces growing challenges in the Pacific and Asian regions to both is status as the dominant power and position as the worlds banker. This frankly gives the US more concern than the situation in Europe where it not unreasonably feels the local powers within NATO and the EU  have consistently failed to speak with a united voice and divi up for the costs of their defence – leaving the heavy lifting to America whilst spending unsupportable sums on welfare and social programmes that a lower income resident of a rural town in Arkansas, Mississippi or any other fly over state would simply marvel at – importantly with disbelief rather than envy.  

So, the fact is that both the US and Europe are at points of balance and Ukraine is the weight that could tip the scale.

Zelenski has played Dorothy and pulled back the curtain for many who were happy to believe the fairy tale. Behind that curtain sits a man not a magical wizard – the miracles are illusions driven by leavers; pull the wrong one and the magical city collapses. The best we can hope is that a balloon exists that can carry us all back to Kansas – that balloon has to be built in Europe, it will take time and until its ready, like it or not, we will all have to pretend that that the wizard in the Emerald City is real and Ukraine will, through gritted teeth , with the total and unambiguous support of the rest of Europe have to hold the line.

To quote the Lion… Courage! What makes a king out of a slave? Courage! What makes the flag on the mast to wave? Courage! What makes the elephant charge his tusk in the misty mist, or the dusky dusk? What makes the muskrat guard his musk? Courage! What makes the sphinx the seventh wonder? Courage! What makes the dawn come up like thunder? Courage! What makes the Hottentot so hot? What puts the "ape" in apricot? – 

Ukraine has answered this question – the leaders of Europe singley and collectively now must prove their answer to the closing sentence – What have they got that I ain't got?   is “nothing”.

If not then a Country has been smashed, a million people have died and billions on billions of Dollars, Pounds and Euros have been expended for - nothing.